TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 10

“FLORITA” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE ISABELA-CAGAYAN AREA

Location of Center (4:00 AM) :The center of Severe Tropical Storm “FLORITA” was estimated based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 120 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.6°N, 123.2°E)

Intensity : Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 992 hPa

Present Movement : North northwestward at 10 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds : Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No.3 (Storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 18 hours)

Luzon

The northern and eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Pamplona, Abulug, Ballesteros, Lal-Lo, Baggao, Peñablanca, Gattaran, Aparri, Camalaniugan, Buguey, Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Santa Teresita) and the eastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan) – –

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

TCWS No.2 (Gale-force winds prevailing or expected within the next 24 hours)

The rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, the eastern and central portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Kayapa, Ambaguio, Solano, Villaverde, Bagabag, Diadi, Quezon, Bayombong, Bambang, Aritao, Dupax del Sur, Dupax del Norte, Kasibu, Alfonso Castaneda), Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the northern portion of Benguet (Bakun, Kibungan, Buguias, Kabayan, Mankayan, Bokod, Atok), Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern and central portions of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Baler, Maria Aurora)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No.1 (Strong winds prevailing or expected within the next 36 hours)

Batanes, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, the eastern portion of Tarlac (San Clemente, Camiling, Moncada, San Manuel, Anao, Santa Ignacia, Gerona, Paniqui, Ramos, Pura, Victoria, La Paz, City of Tarlac, Concepcion), Nueva Ecija, the rest of Aurora, the eastern portion of Pampanga (Magalang, Arayat, Candaba), the eastern portion of Bulacan (San Ildefonso, San Miguel, Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Rafael, Angat, Norzagaray, City of San Jose del Monte), the eastern portion of Rizal (Rodriguez, San Mateo, City of Antipolo, Tanay, Baras), the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar, Infanta, Real, Mauban, Perez, Alabat, Quezon, Calauag) including Polillo Islands, the northern portion of Laguna (Santa Maria, Famy, Siniloan, Pangil, Pakil, Paete), and Camarines Norte

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall

• Today: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Cagayan, Isabela, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, and Zambales. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over the northern portion of Aurora, Bataan, Tarlac, and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Camarines Norte, and the rest of Central Luzon.

• Tomorrow early morning through afternoon: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Ilocos Region. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Benguet and Abra. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains over the rest of Cordillera Administrative Region.

• Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are expected especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps, and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.

• In the next 24 hours, the Southwest Monsoon will also bring monsoon rains over Western Visayas, MIMAROPA and the rest of Bicol Region. For more information, refer to the Weather Advisory #3 issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast issued at 4:00 AM today.

Severe Winds

• Throughout the passage of FLORITA, winds may reach storm-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds may reach gale-force in strength in any of the areas where Wind Signal no. 2 is hoisted. Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within any of the areas where Wind Signal no. 1 is currently in effect.

• In the next 24 hours, gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale strength may also be experienced (especially in the coastal and mountainous areas) over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Mindoro Provinces, Marinduque, Romblon, Northern Samar, Antique, Aklan, and the remaining areas of CALABARZON and Bicol Region.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

• Under the influence of Severe Tropical Storm “FLORITA” and the prevailing Southwest Monsoon, a Gale Warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Northern and Central Luzon, most of the seaboards of Southern Luzon, and western seaboard of Visayas. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #3 issued at 5:00 AM today.

• In the next 24 hours, the Tropical Storm and the Southwest Monsoon will also bring moderate to rough seas over the remaining seaboards of Southern Luzon and Visayas (1.2 to 2.8 m). These conditions may be risky for those using small seacrafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• Severe Tropical Storm FLORITA will continue to gradually accelerate northwestward and is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of the east coast of either Cagayan or northern Isabela this morning or early afternoon. Afterwards, the storm will traverse Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tonight. On the forecast track, FLORITA may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday morning.

• Due to the slight shift in the track forecast, a slight intensification prior to landfall is not ruled out. However, the frictional effects of the rugged terrain of Northern Luzon will cause FLORITA to slightly weaken. Once over the West Philippine Sea, the tropical cyclone is forecast to re-intensify.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.

DOST-PAGASA

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